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Is OXY a good stock to buy? We came across a bullish thesis on Occidental Petroleum Corporation on Beyond the Noise’s Substack by Cristobal Botanch. In this article, we will summarize the bulls’ thesis on OXY. Occidental Petroleum Corporation's share was trading at $57.12 as of April 24th. OXY’s trailing and forward P/E were 42.31 and 13.11 respectively according to Yahoo Finance.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the acquisition, exploration, and development of oil and gas properties in the United States and internationally. OXY is presented as a deeply mispriced energy company undergoing a self-funded deleveraging and efficiency transformation, with the market still anchored to the post-2022 oil cycle correction despite improving fundamentals. After rising from $10 to $77 during the 2020–2022 oil surge, the stock has consolidated near $55 as leverage concerns following the CrownRock acquisition weighed on sentiment.
However, the company has already begun reversing that narrative through aggressive balance sheet repair and operational optimization rather than relying on higher crude prices. The January 2026 sale of OxyChem accelerated debt reduction from $25 billion toward $15 billion, with a further $700 million tender offer pushing net debt closer to $14.3 billion, unlocking approximately $365 million in annual interest savings.
Management has also identified $500 million in upstream cost efficiencies and $400 million in midstream optimization, supporting a projected $1.2 billion increase in free cash flow in 2026 alone. This creates a visible path toward higher equity value through controlled levers, reinforcing “coiled spring” dynamic. Additional catalysts include structurally lower lease operating expenses below $8 per barrel and potential upside from STRATOS, the world’s largest direct air capture project, which could introduce a new carbon monetization narrative.
While risks include weaker WTI prices or integration delays, Occidental’s 2025 execution track record and Buffett-backed shareholder base strengthen confidence in continued deleveraging and margin expansion. As financial risk declines and cash flow visibility improves, the stock appears positioned for a rerating once the market recognizes deleveraging and improving free cash flow visibility.
Previously, we covered a bullish thesis on Occidental Petroleum (OXY) by Magnus Ofstad in May 2025, which highlighted Permian Basin strength, undervaluation, Berkshire Hathaway backing, and STRATOS optionality amid weak sentiment. OXY’s stock price has appreciated by 32.71% since our coverage. Cristobal Botanch shares a similar view but emphasizes deleveraging, cost efficiencies, and balance sheet repair as the primary catalyst.
Occidental Petroleum Corporation is not on our list of the 40 Most Popular Stocks Among Hedge Funds. As per our database, 67 hedge fund portfolios held OXY at the end of the fourth quarter which was 62 in the previous quarter. While we acknowledge the risk and potential of OXY as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and doing so within a shorter time frame. If you are looking for an AI stock that is more promising than OXY and that has 10,000% upside potential, check out our report about this cheapest AI stock.