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- U.S. equity index futures are mostly higher as investors monitor developments in U.S.–Iran negotiations (see Commodities below) after major benchmarks ended last week at fresh record highs; weekly performance shows the S&P 500 (w/w +1.1% to 7,230), Nasdaq 100 (w/w +1.6% to 27,710), Dow 30 (w/w +0.8% to 49,499), and Russell 2000 (w/w +0.9% to 2,812) all ended higher; Treasury yields fell back last Friday but ended the week higher with bond traders noting the 10-year breakeven inflation rate nearing 2.5%, and market pricing (CME’s FedWatch) sticks to a hold (via majority) for the remainder of this year and a good chunk of next
- Shares of Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) (-0.6%) closed lower in what was a mixed session for semiconductors, with decent gains for AMD (+1.7%) and more so Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) (+5.4%) and Micron (NASDAQ:MU) (+4.8%)
- Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) shares (+2.4%) closed notably higher on Friday but among Big Tech it was Apple (+3.3%) that outperformed following its earnings and revenue beat prior
- Gains in shares of Hershey (-1.8%) failed to stick by the close despite enjoying an upgrade out of TD Cowen to buy from hold
- Big move for shares of Paramount Skydance (+8.3%) getting a double upgrade out of Morgan Stanley from underweight to overweight driven by AI-driven cost savings and streaming optimism
- Shares of Rivian (-8.4%) closed notably lower despite its quarterly earnings release prior where its loss was lighter than anticipated and it beat on revenue, and reaffirmed its auto sales target for this year
- AstraZeneca (-1.4%) closed lower after an FDA advisory panel voted against approval of its oral breast cancer drug
- Shares of eBay set to surge on GameStop’s announcement of $125 per share bid to take the e-commerce platform and turn it into a rival to Amazon
- Meme stock movers: Beyond Meat (-3.6%), Kohl’s (+3.5%), GoPro (+4.9%), Krispy Kreme (-3.1%), AMC (-4.6%), Nokia (+3%), GameStop (+6.3%), Avis (+2.7%)
- Most crypto stocks ended higher: Coinbase (+1.9%), MicroStrategy (+7.1%), Mara Holdings (-4.4%), Gemini Space Station (+6.3%), Bullish (+4.2%)
o Exxon Mobil (NYSE:XOM): earnings and revenue beat expectations despite shipment disruptions and related charges; shares down 1% by the close
o Chevron (NYSE:CVX): adjusted earnings beat expectations while revenue missed; shares closed 1.4% lower
o Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE:BRKb): operating earnings up 18% y/y, insurance investment income down 7%, and cash holdings and equivalents climb to $397bn
- Gold sticks to $4.6K with its small weekend gap easily getting filled as investors weigh geopolitical signals, yields that are still higher w/w but a greenback falling out of the 98 handle, while silver outperformed late last week to reach $76 and taking the gold/silver ratio back down into the $60s
- Oil prices (WTI) gap lower to below $100 as President Trump over the weekend announced “Project Freedom” to help stranded civilian cargo ships exit the Strait of Hormuz even if market participants await further details, with much of that gap on the verge of being filled; OPEC+ agreed to a 188K bpd increase in June output in its first meeting since the UAE’s departure, though constrained strait means much of that might not make it to market until its full reopening; weekly rig count data out of Baker Hughes shows number of US oil rigs rising by one to 408
- Bitcoin climbs to $80K its highest since January and breaching a key resistance level with larger percentage gains for Ether not far off $2.4K; Coinbase says Senate negotiators have reached a deal on the disputed crypto bill provision tied to stablecoin rewards
- US Dollar Index sticks to the 97s albeit not far off 98, with USD/JPY in the 156s experiencing another volatile move this morning with its short-term support level in the 155s holding again; Reuters report that authorities likely spent about $35bn during intervention to bring the pair’s price down, though underlying factors means it remains a temporary solution
- Federal Reserve’s Kashkari that the longer the Iran war persists the greater the inflation and growth risks and that the Fed should not signal a rate cut as the next move could also be a hike, Hammack sees “this clear easing bias as no longer appropriate given the outlook,” Logan that uncertainty remains high and the next policy move could plausibly be either a cut or a hike rather than an easing-biased signal, and Goolsbee that inflation data last week was “bad news” for the central bank
- European Central Bank’s Stournaras that a possible recession in the bloc is “real and justified,” and Nagel in favor of a June hike unless there’s a significant change in the outlook; Morgan Stanley no longer expects rate cuts this year out of the ECB due to the conflict’s impact
- Bank of England’s Pill that policymakers should act more promptly against fresh inflation pressure to avoid price pressures becoming embedded
- Indices: Remain majority buy in the S&P 500 (59% from 57%) and raise their long bias as trend-traders start to emerge with the index enjoying record highs, but the same strategy isn’t deployed across as traders take profit in the Dow 30 (majority buy 60% from 68% last Monday), Russell 2000 (slight long 51% from 55%) while remain majority short in the Nasdaq 100 (58% from 60%) as some traders opt to sell into the rally; elsewhere sentiment shifts in the Nikkei (from a slight sell 51% to a majority long 64%) as long initiate near a short-term support level, and push further into extreme long territory in the ASX (88% from 83%) buying into any pullbacks
- Commodities: Near extreme buy territory and holding in gold (77%) as longs initiated at higher price levels await an upside move with a similar story in silver (82% from 83% a week ago) as the latter outperformed late last week; shifts to the middle in WTI (from a majority buy 57%) as the weekly gains saw fresher longs close out
- FX: Shifts from the middle in GBP/USD (to a slight sell 53% at the start of this week) as traders shorting into gains late last week following the BoE policy decision, and shifted in USD/JPY (from a majority short 56% to a majority long 59%) as intervention at 160 pushed the pairs price violently lower and saw plenty of shorts close out and longs initiate
- Indices: Net short and little changed in the S&P 500 (59% from 60%), Dow 30 (53% from 54%) and Russell (55% from 54%) while shift in the Nasdaq 100 (from a previous net long 53% to a net short 52%)
- Commodities: Extreme buy in gold and little changed (80% from 81%) while push further in silver (81% from 78%) on a larger closure of shorts over longs, and trim their net long bias in one of the WTI contracts (64% from 66%)
- FX: Net long and dropping slightly in EUR (54% from 55%), raise their net sell bias in GBP (67% from 65%), and starting to unwind their net short CAD bias (to 61% from 66%; i.e., majority long USD/CAD 61% from 66% prior)
- U.S. ISM manufacturing PMI for April holds at 52.7, in line with the prior month but below the 53.1 forecast, prices paid accelerates sharply to 84.6, and employment component worsens to 46.4; S&P Global’s reading for the sector improves to 54.5
- U.S. factory orders (6pm Dubai time), bill auctions, Fed’s loan officer survey, FOMC member speaks
o Earnings from Palantir, Vertex Pharmaceuticals, and others
- EZ manufacturing PMI (12pm), Sentix’s investor confidence (12:30pm)
- U.S. ISM services PMI and JOLTS job openings tomorrow, ADP’s non-farm estimate on Wednesday, the weekly claims and Challenger’s job cuts on Thursday, and a string of data on Friday the market-moving Non-Farm Payrolls
o Earnings from AMD and Pfizer tomorrow, Disney and Uber on Wednesday, and McDonald’s on Thursday