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Jefferies still sees upside in Haleon PLC (LSE:HLN, NYSE:HLN), even after cutting its price target, arguing the consumer healthcare group’s headline growth is masking a stronger underlying run rate once cold and flu volatility is stripped out.
The broker retained its Buy rating but lowered its target to 400p from 450p, implying around 16% upside from the prior close of 344.10p.
Haleon’s first-quarter organic sales growth came in at 2.2%, in line with Jefferies’ estimate but below consensus, as cold and flu remained a material drag. Jefferies estimates that the category knocked around 130 basis points off group growth, with cold and flu sales contracting by roughly 9% year on year. Excluding that impact, the broker estimates Haleon’s underlying growth rate was 4.0%, following 4.1% in the fourth quarter of 2025 on the same basis.
“HLN could better highlight this underlying run rate, we think,” analyst David Hayes said.
The issue is that the growth engine remains uneven. Oral Health once again did much of the heavy lifting, growing 8.3% in the quarter, helped by Sensodyne Clinical Repair and parodontax Gum Strengthen & Protect, which delivered double-digit consumption growth in the US. Jefferies described Oral Health as “the jewel of the portfolio” but warned that the strength also exposes a portfolio imbalance.