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Palantir (PLTR) reported Q1 2026 revenue growth of 85% YoY with U.S. commercial revenue up 104%, prompting management to raise full-year guidance to 71% YoY growth and U.S. commercial guidance to 120% YoY growth, while Citi raised its price target to $225 and Argus upgraded to Buy with a $190 target.
Palantir trades 13% below its 52-week high despite blowout earnings because of a 192 P/E multiple and heavy stock-based compensation of $684 million in FY2025, creating a valuation disconnect between the stock’s momentum and its operating acceleration.
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Palantir has whipsawed traders all year, but the latest Q1 earnings reset the conversation. Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR) just delivered another blowout quarter, raised full-year guidance, and absorbed multiple analyst upgrades, yet the stock still sits well below its 52-week high. Our model says that gap is an opportunity.
Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for Palantir is $157.53, implying meaningful upside from the current quote of $133.18. That works out to roughly 18.28% upside over the next 12 months. Our recommendation is buy, and our confidence in this forecast is high at 90%.
Palantir is down 23.54% year to date and 8.45% over the past month, sitting 13% below its 52-week high of $207.52. That weakness is at odds with the operating story.
Q1 2026 delivered 85% YoY revenue growth and 104% U.S. revenue growth, with management raising full-year revenue guidance to 71% YoY growth and U.S. commercial guidance to 120% YoY growth.
Q4 2025 set the table: revenue of $1.41 billion (up 70% YoY), adjusted EPS of $0.25 beating consensus by 38.89%, and a record $4.262 billion in total contract value closed. CEO Alex Karp told investors, "Palantir's Rule of 40 score is now an incredible 127%... We are an n of 1."
Bulls have plenty to work with. Citi raised its price target to $225 from $210 with a Buy rating, citing accelerating AI demand in Palantir's U.S. business. Argus upgraded the stock to Buy from Hold with a $190 target, raising FY26 EPS to $1.47 and FY27 to $1.94. The Wall Street consensus target sits at $180.68 with 19 Buy ratings.
If U.S. commercial keeps compounding at the 137% YoY pace seen in Q4 and AIP adoption broadens, our bull case points to $200.89 in 12 months, a 50.84% return.
Palantir trades at a 192 P/E and a 149 price-to-free-cash-flow multiple. Any deceleration could compress the multiple sharply. Stock-based compensation hit $684 million for FY2025, and insider activity skews toward selling with 72 recent transactions, net selling. Polymarket traders are also cautious, with the most likely May close clustering around $132.
That said, bulls would argue heavy SBC is the cost of attracting elite engineering talent during a once-in-a-generation AI build-out, and the GAAP picture is improving fast: GAAP operating income jumped to $575.4 million in Q4, a 41% margin. Our bear case still gets to $139.16, only modestly below current levels.
Our price target of $157.53 with a buy rating reflects a stock that has corrected hard while fundamentals accelerated. The bull case rests on whether Palantir's 120% U.S. commercial guidance is achievable. The bear case hinges on whether the 192 P/E is sustainable through any growth hiccup. On balance, the risk-reward skews positive in our model.
Looking further ahead, here is where our model projects Palantir could trade, assuming current growth trajectories hold.
These projections assume Palantir continues executing on AIP commercialization and government expansion. Significant upside or downside could result from AI adoption pace and any moderation in defense spending.
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