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Match Group earnings top estimates on Tinder recovery, Jefferies analysts remain cautious

finance.yahoo.com · Thu, May 7, 2026 at 1:42 AM GMT+8

Match Group Inc (NASDAQ:MTCH) shares edged higher on Wednesday after the online dating company reported first quarter results that modestly exceeded Wall Street expectations, supported by growth in Hinge and early signs of stabilization at Tinder.

The company posted adjusted earnings of $0.95 per share for Q1 2026, ahead of analyst estimates of $0.92.

Revenue came in at $864 million, topping expectations of $855 million and marking a 4% increase year over year, though it was flat on a foreign exchange-neutral basis.

Net income rose 42% from a year earlier to $167 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 25% to $343 million, representing a margin of 40%. Operating cash flow totaled $194 million, with free cash flow of $174 million.

Growth was driven in part by a 10% increase in revenue per payer to $20.90, offset by a 5% decline in total payers to 13.5 million.

Within its portfolio, Hinge continued to deliver strong revenue growth, supported by product innovation and the rollout of features such as Face Check, which the company said reduced interactions with bad actors by 20% to 30%.

At Tinder, management pointed to improving engagement trends, with new user registrations returning to year-over-year growth in March for the first time in nearly two years. Monthly active user declines also moderated during the period.

Match Group also highlighted ongoing cost discipline and capital allocation efforts. During the quarter, the company repurchased $60 million worth of shares and paid $44 million in dividends, while deploying additional cash to offset dilution from employee equity awards. Diluted shares outstanding declined 5% from a year earlier.

Looking ahead, Match Group expects second-quarter revenue in the range of $850 million to $860 million, representing a decline of 2% to flat year over year. Adjusted EBITDA is projected between $325 million and $330 million, implying continued margin expansion.

Jefferies analysts reiterated their ‘ Hold’ rating on Match and raised its price target to $35 from $30, citing early signs of a product-driven recovery at Tinder.

The firm highlighted improving trends in key metrics, including Tinder payers declining 5% year over year in Q1 versus an 8% drop in Q4, moderating monthly active user declines, and a return to year-over-year growth in registrations in March.

However, Jefferies cautioned that it does not expect further improvement in payer declines in the near term and pointed to ongoing structural concerns in the online dating category, particularly around Gen Z engagement.

“Given multiple false starts in the past, we're hesitant to say there's a turnaround underway,” they wrote.

Shares of Match Group were up about 1.6% to about $38 in afternoon trading following the report.