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The Indian equity benchmarks exhibited significant volatility during Thursday’s session, ultimately finishing marginally lower as investors adopted a cautious stance. Nifty 50 concluded at 24,326.65, down 4.30 points, while S&P BSE Sensex ended flat at 77,844.52.
Despite muted headline indices, the broader market remained buoyant, evidenced by a robust advance-decline ratio of 2,290 stocks advancing and 999 stocks declining, signaling strong buying interest in mid and small-cap segments.
The session was heavily influenced by a ‘hope vs fear’ narrative surrounding West Asian geopolitics. While optimism initially grew over a potential U.S.-Iran memorandum aimed at easing Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions, the market turned cautious as traders awaited Iran’s formal response. This uncertainty kept Brent crude hovering near $99 per barrel, weighing on oil-sensitive sectors.
On the domestic front, Nifty Auto led gainers with a 1.93% surge on positive monsoon outlooks. On the other hand, Nifty IT and FMCG lagged due to global macro caution and persistent FII outflows, which exceeded ₹5,800 crore in the previous session. Investors now look toward formal diplomatic confirmations and upcoming Q4 earnings to break the current consolidation.
Indian equity benchmarks ended largely flat on Thursday, with Nifty 50 slipping 4.3 points, or 0.02%, to close at 24,326.65 after a volatile trading session. Sensex also traded in a narrow range as investors remained cautious ahead of key global cues and continued to monitor corporate earnings.
Broader market sentiment, however, remained constructive, as reflected in a strong advance-decline ratio with advancing stocks significantly outpaced decliners, with 2,290 stocks advanced, 999 declined, and 105 remained unchanged.
On the sectoral front, Auto stocks led the gains, with Nifty Auto rising nearly 2%, supported by buying in select OEM names. On the other hand, Nifty Financials and Realty also ended in positive territory. On the downside, IT, FMCG, and consumer durable stocks witnessed profit booking amid concerns over slowing global demand and valuation pressures.
Price action remained constructive throughout the latter half of the session, as the index decisively moved above its short-term declining trendline, suggesting an improvement in near-term momentum. The index also reclaimed its 20-DMA, reflecting strengthening short-term sentiment. Although it continues to trade below the broader medium-term moving averages, indicating that the larger trend remains in a recovery phase rather than a confirmed uptrend.
Momentum indicators further support the improvement of the undertone. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) has moved higher to around 55, crossing above its signal average and indicating a gradual shift from neutral to positive momentum without entering overbought territory. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in positive crossover territory, with the histogram sustaining above the zero line, highlighting continued bullish momentum and easing downside pressure. Volumes also improved alongside the breakout attempt, reinforcing the credibility of the move.
According to O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, the Indian equity market transitioned to a “Confirm Uptrend” from a “Rally Attempt.
Nifty 50 is approaching a crucial near-term zone where price action is likely to remain decisive for directional bias. On the upside, the index may face initial resistance at 24,300–24,600, while a stronger supply zone is positioned around 24,800–25,000, where the convergence of multiple key moving averages could act as a hurdle to sustained upward momentum in the near term.
On the downside, immediate support is seen near 23,800, followed by a more significant cushion in 23,500–23,550, which closely coincides with the 21-DMA and is expected to provide a strong technical base during any corrective phase.
Nifty Bank opened on a mildly positive note and traded in a volatile range throughout the session before ending with marginal gains. The index opened at 56,114.00, touched an intraday high of 56,334.15, slipped to a low of 55,783.20, and finally settled at 56,047.40, up 66.35 points or 0.12%.
After witnessing intraday selling pressure near the higher levels, the index managed to recover from the day’s low, indicating buying interest emerging around the 21-DMA. However, the inability to sustain above the 50-DMA highlights continued supply at higher levels.
Price action remains range-bound as traders await stronger directional triggers from global cues, banking earnings momentum, and evolving interest-rate expectations. Broader sentiment remains cautious despite selective buying in frontline banking counters.
The RSI (14) is currently placed near 53.16, indicating neutral-to-positive momentum and suggesting that the index is gradually stabilizing after the recent corrective phase. The RSI has moved above its signal average, reflecting improving short-term strength, though it still lacks strong bullish momentum.
Meanwhile, the MACD indicator remains marginally positive, with the MACD line hovering near the signal line, indicating consolidation and a lack of decisive trend confirmation.
The histogram has flattened considerably, suggesting weakening momentum after the recent rebound. Technically, the index appears to be transitioning into a base-building phase, where sustained moves above key moving averages could determine the next directional breakout.
On the technical front, immediate support is placed around 55,750–55,700, followed by stronger support near 55,200, where buying interest previously emerged. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen near 56,350, while a decisive breakout above 56,800–57,000 could strengthen bullish momentum toward 57,800, where the 100-DMA is positioned.
Structurally, the index is attempting to stabilize after a sharp correction witnessed during March-April. However, the presence of multiple moving averages overhead continues to restrict aggressive upside momentum.
Going forward, market participants are likely to monitor global banking sentiment, bond yield movement, crude oil trends, and institutional flows closely. Sustaining above the 21-DMA may gradually improve sentiment, while failure to hold support levels could trigger renewed profit booking pressure.
MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. It offers tools and resources to help investors make informed decisions based on the CAN SLIM methodology, founded by legendary investor William J. O'Neil. You can access a 10-day free trial by registering on its website.
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